Somaliland is a country that gained independence from the UK in 1960. Later, it entered a complex political situation with Somalia but currently a sovereign state. This is not a case of secession, but one of state continuity. Recognition by other countries is a political decision and does not determine statehood under the Montevideo Convention; the most cited standard in international law. The four criteria of the Montevideo Convention (permanent population, defined territory, effective government, and capacity for international relations) are all met by Somaliland.
US and Western Recognition: Pros and Cons
Let’s move to the big question:
Is US recognition of Somaliland in the strategic interest of the United States; and the West in general?
Here’s a point-by-point, hard-hitting breakdown (with weak points removed through reasoned debate):
Strategic Benefits
- Stability: recognising Somaliland supports a stable and relatively democratic entity in a volatile region with a history of violent instability.
- Strategic Presence: Somaliland’s location near the Gulf of Aden offers the US leverage in a vital maritime corridor, enhancing regional and global security.
- Economic Opportunity: Opening formal relations brings untapped economic partnerships and investment prospects, including access to resources.
- Governance Example: Somaliland’s effective, democratic governance is unique and deserves reinforcement, setting a democratic example in the Horn of Africa.
- Counterterrorism and Moderate Islam: Formal recognition would empower Somaliland to defend itself effectively against extremist threats and help curb the influence of groups like Al-Shabaab. Moreover, Somaliland’s tradition of moderate, Sufi Islam and relative harmony could serve as a positive model, providing a counter-narrative to extremism in the region; including that of the Houthis
- Public Diplomacy and Soft Power: US support for a stable, democratic, majority-Muslim country that respects pluralism and rule of law sends a powerful message to other states and Muslim populations globally.
- Discouraging secession: There is a strong precedent for restoring recognition to countries whose sovereignty was interrupted, such as the Baltic States after Soviet annexation. Upholding Somaliland’s case as non-secession case reinforces principled recognition policies rooted only in history and law.
- Regional Economic Catalyst: US recognition could unlock international investment and development for Somaliland with positive spillover for the broader Horn of Africa—especially if this is linked to anti-corruption and good governance benchmarks.
- Trump Legacy: recognising Somaliland would position Trump as a champion of principled recognition and master of America First policy all while reinforcing that statehood is determined by objective legal criteria, not mere politics.
Supposed Drawbacks; and Why They Don’t Hold Up
- Diplomatic Fallout with African or Other Countries: This concern is overstated. The United States, as a global superpower, routinely makes recognition decisions rooted in national interest. Diplomatic opposition is likely to be temporary and manageable, and United States recognition would not require other countries to follow. State recognition, by design gives the options to other countries to recognise or not recognise Somaliland
- Regional Tension with Somalia: Somalia’s current government, with lack of control and weak legitimacy, has little weight in altering the facts on the ground. Its claim over Somaliland’s territory is among the weakest in international law, and precedent of Baltic States shows that the US can act in its own strategic interest regardless.
- Terrorist Group Threats: Yes Somaliland might be attacked. However, recognising Somaliland could actually reduce security risks by strengthening its capacity to defend itself and encouraging an effective, moderate partner in regional counterterrorism; hence, this point does not weaken the case for recognition.
Conclusion: Win - Win - Win
After weighing the genuine pros and cons, here’s the final, clear recommendation:
The United States should recognise Somaliland.
The strategic, economic, and political benefits decisively outweigh any manageable risks. Recognition aligns not just with US interests but also with international law and the foundational principles of statehood.