Somaliland

45. Somaliland: The Paragon Lock

Haadka
Haadka
August 17, 2025 · 3 min read
45. Somaliland: The Paragon Lock

Video Overview

For years, I blamed China for Africa's refusal to recognise Somaliland. Beijing's influence, I thought, was the invisible hand keeping African states in line.

I was wrong.

There's a more sinister phenomenon at play; one we've failed to recognise because we've been looking in the wrong direction.

I call it the Paragon Lock Of Africa.

The Perfect Prisoner

Here's the paradox that should terrify anyone who believes in justice: Somaliland has the strongest case for recognition in modern history, yet it remains unrecognised. Not because its claim is weak, but precisely because it is too strong.

But here's what makes it even more perverse: Somaliland isn't even secession.

You'd think this distinction would put minds at rest. After all, if Somaliland isn't really secession, then recognising it wouldn't set any dangerous precedent for actual secessionist movements.

But no. That's exactly what makes them oppose it more fiercely.

Because Somaliland is the paragon; the perfect example of what legitimate statehood looks like.

By denying recognition to this paragon, the international system created the ultimate shield: If even Somaliland (with its impeccable credentials and non-secessionist status) cannot be recognised, then what hope does any other aspiring state have?

This is the Paragon lock. Somaliland didn't just become unrecognised; it became the reason why recognition itself seems impossible.

The Geographic Lottery

Consider this thought experiment: relocate Somaliland to Europe, Asia, or the Americas.

Would it still be unrecognised after 34 years? The answer is so obvious it's painful.

Somaliland's location in Africa is a blessing for some African leaders who discovered they could use Somaliland's denial as a convenient excuse for their own failures in maintaining unity.

Instead of doing the hard work of building inclusive nations that citizens want to belong to, they point to Somaliland and declare: "See? Even they can't get recognition. Your cause is hopeless."

The Fatal Calculation

These African leaders made a catastrophic miscalculation. They believed that blocking the most legitimate case would discourage all others.

The opposite may well happen, because this system carries within it the seeds of its own collapse.

Every day that Somaliland remains unrecognised despite meeting all the qualifications of statehood, the international order bleeds credibility. The lesson spreads: legitimacy doesn't matter; only raw power does.

By pushing Somaliland from the realm of legitimacy into that of "illegitimacy," the world is inadvertently creating a blueprint for secessionist movements. Groups can now dream of de facto existence, regardless of law, history or recognition. The RSF in Sudan, for example, openly draws inspiration from Somaliland. On paper, they share nothing; but Africa's Paragon Lock mentality has lumped them together.

Breaking the Lock

The question isn't whether this lock will hold forever. It won't.

The question is what price Africa will pay when this order finally breaks; and whether the ultimatums will come through the lawful, peaceful precedent Somaliland represents, or through violent alternatives Africa is unprepared for.