Dear Crisis Group In your recent episode “Ethiopia’s Push for Sea Access” with Christopher Clapham, you have proclaimed Without presenting any evidence, that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Somaliland And Ethiopia will not proceed. This prompts the question: why didn't you host the numerous international relations experts who were either neutral or supportive of the MoU? Furthermore, Somaliland's status, a core issue needing resolution, was not even addressed in your discussion.
Your organization claims to have been established in 1995 to anticipate crises following the collapse of Somalia in 1991. Yet, in your On the Horizon: October 2023-March 2024, you predicted three developments in Somaliland. Guess what?
None of them happened!!!!
Meanwhile, back in 2006, you published a report titled
"Somaliland: Time for African Union Leadership" where it was stated:
"Despite fears that recognition would lead to the fragmentation of Somalia or other AU member states, an AU fact-finding mission in 2005 concluded the situation in Somaliland was sufficiently 'unique and self-justified in African political history,' and that 'the case should not be linked to the notion of ‘opening a Pandora’s box’."
It was also mentioned:
"The AU should respond to Somaliland’s request for recognition by engaging as a neutral third party, without prejudice to the final determination of Somaliland’s sovereign status."
Additionally, the report recognised that"
"For a generation of Somaliland’s youth, who have no memories of a united Somalia, unlike young Southerners, Somaliland’s sovereignty is a matter of identity."
Given your extensive understanding of the Somaliland case, it is puzzling why your stance against our independence has become so consistent and pronounced.
What prompted this significant shift in your views? Is it related to Qatar becoming one of the countries funding the Crisis Group?
Not only your predictions are poor but also you seem to run without principles at all.