Let's be honest. I no longer buy the argument that Somaliland should wait. President Irro should keep a Russian option open and make Washington compete for Berbera. The Trump administration moves fast and thinks transactionally. If American recognition does not happen before the 2026 midterms, Somaliland should not build its strategy around the hope that it will happen later in the term.
Somaliland handed Washington the buyer's advantage before negotiations even began. By marketing Berbera as though the United States were its only serious customer, Hargeisa weakened its own leverage. Washington has no reason to improve its offer while waiting costs it nothing.
One buyer means one price.
I do not think Trump's team would react to a Russian option as the Biden administration might have. In Trump's transactional foreign policy, the prospect of losing access could matter more than another assurance of loyalty. Irro should invite competing proposals and judge each one against Somaliland's interests. An option creates leverage only when the other side believes you might take it.
Somaliland should treat its strategic location the way resource-rich countries treat their natural resources. Open to all. Free to none.
Russia's stalled Port Sudan project gives that doctrine substance. Sudan Tribune reported in December 2025 that the plans had been frozen amid the country's civil war and instability. Berbera could be an ideal alternative for Moscow. The terms envisaged for Sudan reveal the scale of Russia's ambition, an initial 25 years, up to 300 personnel and room for four warships, including vessels powered by nuclear reactors.
Now imagine comparable terms at Berbera. AFRICOM and the US ambassador in Mogadishu could still visit from time to time, only to watch 300 Russian military personnel settle into the port Washington assumed would wait. A 25-year lease would outlive the American officials who mistook Somaliland's patience for a permanent reservation.
Irro's previous diplomatic service in Moscow gives his Washington appearances an unspoken edge. The man offering America a partnership already knows the alternative customer's capital.
Sometimes, the loudest thing is what isn't said at all.